KritiGrid

Transmission congestion,
priced per node.

A large load can connect years before the transmission it would otherwise need, if it accepts curtailment. Nobody can price that curtailment, so nobody accepts it. We measure it from public data.

The gap

FERC has directed all six grid operators to offer flexible service to large loads. The question of whether it exists is settled. How anyone measures what accepting it costs is not — and a developer who cannot put a number on curtailment risk cannot finance the site.

We publish that number for 44 interconnection-relevant nodes in Northern California, built entirely from CAISO settlement data. No utility data agreement, and nothing a recipient cannot recompute.

What the record shows

28 h
a year above $50/MWh at the best Bay Area node
361 h
at a node 90 miles away
$10.0M
a year between them, at 500 MW and $60/MWh

Nothing in any published interconnection metric tells a developer which is which.

Why the number holds

53%
of flagged hours had a named transmission element binding
11%
of clear hours did
2.7×
better than matched random elements, at 38 of 39 sites

And the hours are forecastable a month out: 31% median error against 65% for the standard benchmark, better at 39 of 45 sites. Walk-forward, never fit on its own future.

What this is not

A congestion price is a market outcome. An instruction to curtail comes out of a utility's contingency analysis, from an N−1 event, not from an economic price. Those can diverge in exactly the hours that matter.

This is a screening layer. It tells you which sites deserve a power flow study. It does not replace one, and we will not claim it does.

See it

The console is live. Every figure recomputes from public CAISO data, and the failures are published beside the results.

Open the congestion atlas